More Guns, Less Crime
by John R. Lott Jr. - teaches criminal deterrence and law and
economics at the University of Chicago.
More Guns, Less Crime focuses on nondiscretionary concealed handgun laws which are now in effect in 31 states. Mr. Lott's basic findings show that while arrest and conviction rates are the most important factors in reducing crime, nondiscretionary concealed handgun laws also reduce crime and in addition, they are very cost effective.
More Guns, Less Crime asks the question, "Will allowing law-abiding citizens to carry concealed handguns save lives?" To answer the question, Mr. Lott uses eighteen years crime data (1977-1992) covering virtually every county in the United States (3,054 counties are studied). In analyzing the data, Mr. Lott attempts to control for as many factors as possible such as changes in sentencing practices and demographic shifts. By studying data from before and after nondiscretionary concealed handgun laws went into effect, Mr. Lott unequivocally concludes that nondiscretionary concealed handgun laws save lives.
Mr. Lott's findings challenge many commonly accepted notions regarding guns. Urban areas, which historically have fought the hardest against nondiscretionary concealed handgun laws, are ironically the very places that benefit the most from these laws. Mr. Lott's explanation for this is that urban areas are often inadequately protected by the police. Allowing law abiding citizens in these areas to carry concealed weapons results in a dramatic deterrent effect.
Nondiscretionary concealed handgun laws produce the so-called halo effect. Criminals are unable to tell whether a potential victim is armed or not. Criminals thus tend to avoid committing crimes where they are likely to have direct contact with their victims. Criminal activity shifts away from crimes like rape, murder, and robbery to property crimes where no one is around like larceny and auto theft.
This deterrence effect from guns is also supported by data comparing Europe, where guns are restricted in the home, to the U.S., where guns are legally allowed in the home (even in the most gun restrictive jurisdictions like the District of Columbia, shotguns are legal for self-defense in the home). In Europe, 50% of all burglaries are "Hot Burglaries" meaning that someone is home when the criminal enters the home. In the U.S., only 13% of all burglaries are "Hot Burglaries". Studies have indicated that criminals in the U.S. spend significantly more time casing a place to make sure no one is home.
Mr. Lott also includes anecdotal evidence of the success of nondiscretionary concealed handgun laws. In interviews with local law enforcement officials, he notes that many who were originally opposed such laws, changed their mind after the laws went into effect. One officer said he was very surprised by the type of applicants for concealed handgun permits saying they were just ordinary people wanting to protect themselves.
Mr. Lott's data shows that states with nondiscretionary concealed handgun laws have half as much violent crime as states without such laws. One study found that nondiscretionary concealed handgun laws deter over 960,000 crimes a year.
More Guns, Less Crime brings some much needed empirical data into the nondiscretionary concealed handgun law debate. Hopefully others will follow with more research.
Kevin Hein
January 9th, 1999